Daytona 500 Prospectus (Volume 4, 4th Edition)
Normally at this point of the run up to Speedweeks, the field usually gets stronger as potential underdogs and gangbusters last minute deals are struck. However, David Reutimann is out of the mix for Daytona, giving way to Danica Patrick to assure her place in the field. Also out of the mix is Kevin Conway, who looked to be a likely member of the Last Eight In, based on the speed shown by Joe Nemechek during November and January Daytona testing in single car drafting.
BUT WAIT…there’s more! Now it looks like Team Red Bull may have been saved after all. According to jayski.com, the remnants of TRB and the defunct TRG NASCAR program have combined forces to restart the team, thus gaining two locked-in spots for the Daytona 500. But with two going IN, two must come OUT and unfortunately for defending champion Trevor Bayne, he is one of those, along with Robby Gordon. This will rattle a few feathers among the original list of teams that needed to race or time their way in.
With that in mind here is the latest outlook.
Legend: (+) already locked into the race by holding or buying a top 35 owners' points spot into the field.
(-) Not in the top 35 in 2011 owner points, must either time way into field or race their way in via the Duel qualifiers.
Hendrick Motorsports: Qualifying results show that the team has the horsepower and their many wins at Daytona and Talladega prove their success. The big question, do they currently have the right strategy in mind? Last season with the exception of Talladega, their strategy of hanging out at the back failed to pay off as they either got bogged down in traffic or caught up in other drivers’ problems. Expect them to qualify well, but strategy will dictate how they fare in the 2012 Daytona 500. Will be interesting to see who pairs up with whom as Kasey Kahne replaces Mark Martin if the two car draft stays prevalent.
(+) Jeff Gordon (24) AARP Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet
(+) Jimmie Johnson (48) Lowe’s Chevrolet
(+) Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (88) National Guard/Diet Moutain Dew Chevrolet
(+) Kasey Kahne (5) Farmers Insurace Chevrolet
Stewart-Haas Racing: New series champions, but Tony Stewart still is missing that coveted Daytona 500 win, Stewart and Newman looked elsewhere for drafting partners last year, will be interesting to see if that remains the case if the two-car draft stays a major player. Of course the big story is how Danica Patrick will fare in her first Daytona 500, which is likely a lock now as the team acquired the lock from TBR’s Dave Blaney. Patrick showed potential in her two Nationwide starts at Daytona last year, and as I said after the July Daytona race, she is more than deserving of her shot at the Great American Race. Newman is the only former winner of this trio, but you have to like Smoke’s chances the best based off the championship winning momentum.
(+) Tony Stewart (14) Office Depot Chevrolet
(+) Ryan Newman (39) US Army Chevrolet
(+) Danica Patrick (10) GoDaddy.com Chevrolet
Richard Childress Racing: Always a contender in the plate races and a regular pacemaker. Will be interesting how drafting pairings go as Clint Bowyer has left the team to join Michael Waltrip Racing. Harvick is a former Daytona 500 winner, Jeff Burton is a former Daytona 500 pole winner, and Menard has been on the verge of success and now knows what it takes to win after winning last year’s Brickyard 400. The team is running a fourth car in the 500 for Elliott Sadler, since he would be locked into the field.
(+) Kevin Harvick (29) Budweiser Chevrolet
(+) Jeff Burton (31) Caterpillar Chevrolet
(+) Paul Menard (27) Menards Chevrolet
(+) Elliott Sadler (33) Kroger/General Mills Chevrolet
Roush-Fenway Racing: Reigning Coke Zero 400 champion David Ragan is gone but the team returns with four cars for the 500. Kenseth and Biffle, have each earned victories at Daytona, while Edwards surprisingly has yet to do so. Defending Nationwide Series champion Ricky Stenhouse will get a shot at his first NASCAR Sprint Cup restrictor plate race. Hard to say who the favorite is to win from this group, but for now Kenseth is the pick.
(+) Matt Kenseth (17) Best Buy/Valvoline Ford
(+) Carl Edwards (99) Fastenal Ford
(+) Greg Biffle (16) 3M Ford
(+) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (6) Ford
Joe Gibbs Racing: Always the pacemaker in the plate races, but have been unable to bag a trophy as of late. Will be interesting to see how Kyle Busch reacts to his late scolding during the Texas truck race, good chance NASCAR officials’ eyes will be on his every move. Hamlin was the odd man out early at Talladega and lost a lap early in the race. 2012 will be big as to what Joey Logano’s future will hold, he needs to get the season off to a fast start to turn down the “heat.” Busch and Logano were a regular pairing last year, but will be interesting to see who Hamlin will align with. He did work with Ryan Newman at times and was a decent partner with Busch after Logano crashed out at Talladega.
(+) Kyle Busch (18) M&M’s Toyota
(+) Denny Hamlin (11) FedEx Toyota
(+) Joey Logano (20) Home Depot Toyota
Penske Racing: The lone full-time Dodge team ran well in the plate races, but not as a solid tandem, electing to pair up with other cars on race day. It will be interesting to see if that will change this year as Kurt Busch is no longer around, being replaced this year by AJ Allmendinger, who placed third in the 2009 race, and has had decent showings the past two years. Brad Keselowski struggled to find partners last year having lost trust after turning a couple of cars he helped push. Unknown at this point if the new teammates are more willing to work together.
(+) Brad Keselowski (2) Miller LIte Dodge
(+) AJ Allmendinger (22) Shell-Pennzoil Dodge
Michael Waltrip Racing: A team that has a lot of potential, but has yet to take advantage of it. Change is of the essence this year, as they are no longer assisting JTG-Daugherty and have brought in Mark Martin over David Reutimann. Martin Truex Jr. was a regular pacesetter during the July race at Daytona and certainly has the experience from before to challenge the frontrunners. They also made the biggest early silly season move by signing Clint Bowyer, who has had several strong runs on the plate tracks with Richard Childress.
(+) Clint Bowyer (15) 5 Hour Energy Toyota
(+) Martin Truex Jr. (56) Napa Auto Parts Toyota
(-) Mark Martin (55) Aaron’s Toyota
Richard Petty Motorsports: RPM regressed a bit on the plate tracks after a decent run by AJ Allmendinger at Daytona. The Ambrose-Allmendinger tandem was not a threat for the front as most of the other teammate pairings. The loss of Allmendinger could’ve been covered at Daytona perhaps with the signing of David Ragan, but with his limitations on intermediates and short tracks, the team opted to go with Aric Almirola. Almirola has experience in Sprint Cup plate racing, but not with the two-car draft except in Nationwide.
(+) Marcos Ambrose (9) Stanley-DeWalt Tools Ford
(+) Aric Almirola (43) Smithfield Foods Ford
Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing: How 12 months changes things. I was looking at 2011 as being a return to plate dominance for EGR; instead a difficult season across the board now has the team struggling to regain its place among the top contenders on the circuit. However, Jamie McMurray has seemed to perform at his best when his back is against the wall and the same goes for Montoya. If they can find their 2010 form again, they can be a potential winner.
(+) Jamie McMurray (1) Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet
(+) Juan Pablo Montoya (42) Target Chevrolet
Wood Brothers Racing: From qualifying flash in the pan to huge upset win, the Wood Brothers have made noise the past three years during Speedweeks. Now the big question is can they do it again in 2012? They’ll need to change their recent plate race luck however. After winning the Daytona 500 with Trevor Bayne, they struggled in the other three plate races, crashing out in all three. Will factor in qualifying and then the race, the question is, for how long? He will likely get drafting help, since Roush-Fenway supports this entry.
(-) Trevor Bayne (21) Motorcraft Ford
Furniture Row Racing: The Colorado Kids found the magic at the plate tracks that they showed in 2009, thanks to aligning themselves in the two-car draft with Kurt Busch. Breakthrough win at Darlington shows they are capable of winning a big race. Smith is becoming a regular frontrunner and threat on the plate tracks.
(+) Regan Smith (78) Furniture Row Chevrolet
Robby Gordon Motorsports: The surprise of the mid stages of last year’s race, they actually led several laps in last year’s Daytona 500. Never before had the team been a regular frontrunner in the race and they would have challenged for the win if not for contact during the final green-white-checker. The team was not a threat in the other three plate events, so it will be interesting to see if they can repeat their effort from a year ago.
(-) Robby Gordon (7) Speed Energy Drink Dodge
Phoenix Racing: Regular giant killers at Daytona, now they have a top driver at the controls in Kurt Busch. With several top ten efforts over the last 15 years. This may be their best chance to make the winner circle since Brad Keselowski won at Talladega a few years back. The question is which Kurt Busch we will see at Daytona that may be the ultimate judge as to how much of a factor he will be in the 500.
(+) Kurt Busch (51) Phoenix Construction Chevrolet
Tommy Baldwin Racing: This team became a perennial dark horse on the plate tracks and was a contender in every race, except one. That was the one in which TBR ran two cars. The problem is they race well, but they don’t yet have the horsepower to keep in contention on their own. As a result of running the teammates together at Daytona in July, they were not nearly as effective as they were when they ran one car. If they are able to find other helpers they may challenge again, if not unless horsepower is greater it could be a long 500 miles.
(-) Dave Blaney (36) Accell Construction Chevrolet
JTG-Daugherty Racing: This may be the ultimate boom or bust team in the field. Labonte has had several high finishes in the 500, including a second in 1998 and a top five last year. However, the team has not been a consistent factor at the front and changes have been made during the offseason to change that, most notably that they have severed ties with Michael Waltrip Racing and are now toughing it on their own. They could go either way during Speedweeks.
(+) Bobby Labonte (47) Kroger/USO Toyota
Front Row Motorsports: Team has shown flashes of potential to the point that even Sprint Cup champion Tony Stewart had the confidence to draft with them. And they might draw a similar helper with Coke Zero 400 champion David Ragan. The squad has also elected to keep 2011 Daytona 500 top five finisher David Gilliland and fellow returnee Travis Kvapil in the fold. They will be a player among the frontrunners at some point in the Duels and/or race day. They have the same dark horse threat potential as the above squad.
(+) David Ragan (34) Modspace Ford
(+) David Gilliland (38) Long John Silver’s Ford
(-) Travis Kvapil (26) Morristown Drivers Service Ford
Germain Racing: Former Camping World Truck Series champions have featured near the front in previous plate races with Casey Mears at the controls. Were a two-car team but start and parked the second entry at the three plate races they got two cars into. They were a partner with Phoenix Racing last year, but will they get the same help with Kurt Busch in the 51?
(+) Casey Mears (13) Geico Ford
FAS Lane Racing: Made their debut at Daytona last February, with a guaranteed spot with Terry Labonte earning the champions’ provisional. Enjoyed a solid first year and are locked into the 2012 race. Labonte ran the first two plate races, while Mike Bliss ran the other two. They managed to run with the lead draft early, but faded out of contention late. Not likely to feature in February, unless Schrader's experience carries them.
(+) Ken Schrader (32) Federated Auto Parts Ford
NEMCO Motorsports: Regular start and parkers have shown enough speed to place two cars into multiple plate races recently. Nemechek’s 200 plus mph speed in private testing gives himself a good chance to make it on time, should he hit trouble in the Duels. Unknown if team would run the full 500 miles if they make show or not.
(-) Joe Nemechek (87) Toyota
RAB Racing: New team in the Sprint Cup ranks, but with a plethora of experience in the Nationwide Series, including several strong results at Daytona and Talladega. However, this team has a secret weapon that sets it apart from most of the other contenders, a man who has raced his way into the field multiple times before. “Herman’s” recent successes against the odds at Daytona put him over the top when compared to the other teams new to the Cup level.
(-) Kenny Wallace (09) American Ethanol Toyota
Phil Parsons Racing: Two teams that have successfully raced their way into the field recently at Daytona have joined forces to field an entry for Michael McDowell. However, neither team has run a Ford here before, so the learning curve will be the key factor to whether they make the grid or not.
(-) Michael McDowell (98) Ford
Robinson-Blakeney Racing: Long time Nationwide Series midfield runner looking to take advantage of low numbers this year to make first Daytona 500 and first Sprint Cup start. Again, they are a long shot to make lineup, case in point they are using an engine builder that has never competed at the Cup level.
(-) J.J. Yeley (49) AmericaIsraelRacing.com Toyota
Inception Motorsports: Ran a limited schedule on short tracks and one mile tracks only in its first season. Are entering unknown territory with their plate program, however David Stremme’s best performances were on plate tracks during his time with Chip Ganassi, so that may give them an edge over some of the newbies. They have switched to Toyota for 2012.
(-) David Stremme (30) Toyota
Team Formally Known As Team Red Bull: Former Team Red Bull director Thomas Ueberall is now listed as the team owner for the former #4 and #83 entries, both of which ended 2011 in the top 35, meaning locked-in entries. Rumors suggest Ueberall along with former investors with TRG’s NASCAR program have joined forces and bought TRB’s assets. Landon Cassill is likely one of the drivers, the question now is who will drive the second car?
(+) Landon Cassill (93) Toyota
(+) TBA (83) Toyota
Max Q Motorsports: Have unsuccessfully attempted to make the Daytona 500 each of the last three years. They will attempt to make field in 2012 with former Jr. Motorsports development driver Josh Wise at the controls. Wise has drafting experience in Trucks and Nationwide; but will that be enough to punch his ticket for the field?
(-) Josh Wise (37) Ford
K-Automotive Group: Feel good story of Speedweeks last year. They were the slowest car in qualifying, but with the help of Brad Keselowski, Brian raced his way into the race. Unfortunately, this was the only event they successfully made in 2011. He’ll be a long shot again to make race.
(-) Brian Keselowski (92) Chevrolet
Creation-Cope Racing: 1990 upset winner likely to give it another go as a co-owner of this brand new team. Long shot to make the grid, but will be looking to take advantage of low number of entries.
(-) Derrike Cope (75) Dodge
R3 Motorsports: Team returns looking to make Daytona 500, after failing to do so four years ago. Richardson has made the field for the 500 twice, but those were with guaranteed spots in the bank. Another long shot team that is trying to take advantage of low numbers by running full schedule in 2012.
(-) Robert Richardson, Jr. (23) North Texas Pipe Chevrolet
Grid-A-Tology List (1/21/12): Group down to Last Seven In, as Tony Stewart may give up points spot from last year to Danica Patrick. Stewart would then take the Champions Provisional as the reigning Sprint Cup champion.
Last Eight IN:
Mark Martin
Trevor Bayne
Dave Blaney
Joe Nemechek
Robby Gordon
Kenny Wallace
Michael McDowell
J.J. Yeley
Last Four OUT:
David Stremme
Josh Wise
Brian Keselowski
Robert Richardson, Jr.
