With 10 races before Chase for the Sprint Cup begins, the picture is pretty clear as to who’s in and who’s out.

I don’t see a lot of change happening at the top of the standings, but I do think a couple of drivers currently in the top 12 need better performances, while one driver outside the top 12 is poised to make a run.

For starters, I think this weekend at New Hampshire is critical for Clint Bowyer, who’s currently 10th in the standings.

Last year, Bowyer’s coming-out party came in the first Chase race, which just happened to be at New Hampshire. There, he raced with authority from the beginning of the weekend, dominated the race and carried that momentum all the way to a third-place finish in the Chase.

In my opinion, he needs a similar run this weekend to establish some momentum to carry him into the Chase.

Then, if you look at who’s in 11th and 12th, you’ve got Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth. Both are past champions, both have been in this situation before, which should be a distinct advantage. But neither driver has a single win so far this season.

I believe Tony Stewart is at risk because of the uncertain status of his future with Joe Gibbs Racing.

Tony has a history of going on mid-summer runs. However, the difference between the last few years and this year is his contract situation. Is he leaving JGR to own his own team or is he staying? This kind of uncertainty can have an adverse affect on the driver and the team. We need only to look at Dale Earnhardt Jr. last year as an example.

I have less concern regarding Matt Kenseth making the Chase, even though he currently sits on the bubble in the 12th spot. Kenseth started slow, but has regained some momentum as the season has gone on.

In fact, on average, he has been the best driver over the last six races, which is pretty impressive considering he still hasn’t won. I expect the trend of top 10s to continue now that Matt has adjusted to his new crew chief. I consider the team a lock to make the Chase.

So, who currently outside the top 12 has a chance to move up?

Let’s look at them one at a time.

First, Kevin Harvick, who’s currently 13th, has been in the Chase several times. He clearly has the ability and team to put together a 10-race run worthy of qualifying for the Chase.

What concerns me for the 29 team is a lack of speed. In fact, they have not won a points-paying race since nipping Mark Martin in last year’s Daytona 500. Harvick needs to rediscover the speed that carried him to four wins in 2006, which included a victory at New Hampshire. Like his teammate Clint Bowyer, I believe this is an important weekend for the 29 team.

Directly behind Harvick is a young driver who refuses to go away. David Ragan has had a fabulous sophomore season and appears to be building confidence with every race. Combine that with having the experience and savvy of champion crew chief Jimmy Fenning and this could be the surprise of the year.

However, the driver I believe everybody needs to watch is Brian Vickers. So much of this business is timing, and just like Kasey Kahne turned around his season, I’m seeing the same thing out of Vickers. He has legitimized himself and his team as being a Chase contender.

Vickers has been very fast, including solid runs at Pocono and Michigan. Well, guess what? They’re going back to Pocono before the Chase begins. And guess what else? They’re going back to Michigan, too.

Vickers may just be the most relaxed of the bubble drivers heading into this stretch run. Gone are the days when he had to qualify for every race just to get in. Now, his team can focus solely on race set up and performance. And without the expectations that come with being a part of a big, well-established team, Vickers and the entire 83 crew could prove to be the most resilient because of all they’ve been through.

Ryan Newman and Martin Truex are only one and three points behind Vickers, respectively. Frankly, I’m surprised both haven’t been better this year. Newman began the season with the wind to his back, winning the year’s biggest race, but he’s regressed from there. Truex, coming off his first Chase, has not been able to match last year’s performance. Both will need help from their entire team. In other words, their fate may lie in the rest of their team to discover speed.

So who’s in and who’s out?

I really believe who you see in the top 12 right now will represent the Chase come September. Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth have strong teams with great depth in terms of their organizations. They both have the benefits of teammates running well, which gives them someone to lean on for support and direction.

I believe the drivers outside the top 12 need focus on the next 10 races as though it were their Chase, with the focus on winning and 190-point days. Trying to exceed two former champs with top-10 finishes simply won’t be enough. Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth are just too good, as are their teams.

Ricky Craven
~Yahoo.com